Beyond Overhead: Why the 2025 Resource Adequacy Study Warns of Reliability Risks to Illinois Manufacturing Production

For decades, Illinois manufacturers have relied on a relatively stable power grid, but the math behind operational overhead is about to change fundamentally. A recently released landmark report, the 2025 Resource Adequacy (RA) Study, has identified a "credible risk" of capacity shortfalls in the regional power systems serving Illinois by 2030.

As an operations leader, have you begun to look at how these projected regional shortfalls and the newly passed Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability (CRGA) Act will affect your multi-site energy strategy over the next five years?

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TLDR for Energy Strategy Execs:

• The Risk : PJM (ComEd) faces a system-wide capacity shortfall starting in 2029; MISO (Ameren) follows in 2031.

• The Cost : Annual capacity costs in the ComEd zone are projected to jump from $2.1 billion to 3.9 billion by 2030, eventually reaching $5.2 billion by 2045.

• The Solution : The CRGA Act enables Virtual Power Plants (VPPs), allowing companies to aggregate on-site solar and batteries across multiple sites to generate revenue and hedge costs.

  
  

• The Deadline : Federal incentives for on-site solar (ITC) fall off after July 4, 2026, just as new CRGA mandates take effect on June 1, 2026.

Key 2025 Resource Adequacy Study Illinois Findings for Manufacturing Energy Strategy

The 2025 RA Study, developed by the Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC), the Illinois Power Agency (IPA), and the Illinois EPA, concludes that while local Illinois zones currently meet reliability standards, the broader regional markets (PJM and MISO) are tightening at an alarming rate

For manufacturers in the PJM ComEd zone, load growth—driven primarily by data centers—is projected to increase reliability requirements by 24% between 2025 and 2030. As aging fossil-fueled generators retire to meet state climate goals, the region is becoming dangerously dependent on power imports from neighboring states. If the broader regional market is short on power, those imports may not be available, creating a risk of rotating blackouts and system instability for industrial users.

Figure 1: Projected PJM capacity shortfall of 27 GW by 2030 and the impact of the $329.17/MW-day price cap on Illinois manufacturing overhead

The Financial Reality: Why ComEd Capacity Costs are Projected to Hit $3.9 Billion

Capacity prices are essentially a "reservation fee" paid to ensure power is available when needed. In the most recent PJM auction, these prices hit their regulatory cap of $329.17/MW-day. Without the cap, prices would have reached nearly $389.

For an Illinois manufacturer, these wholesale spikes are often passed through by suppliers like Constellation. The 2025 RA Study projects that the annual capacity bill for the ComEd zone will nearly double to $3.9 billion by 2030. For many operations, this represents a massive, non-discretionary increase in fixed overhead that cannot be managed through traditional procurement alone.

Moving from Reactive to Proactive: How the CRGA Act Offers a New Strategic Hedge

The Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability (CRGA) Act was passed to give the state more control over reliability and affordability. It introduces a formal Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and sets an ambitious target of 3 GW of battery storage for the state.

Most importantly for manufacturers, the Act creates a Virtual Power Plant (VPP) initiative. A VPP allows you to pool distributed resources—like solar panels and batteries—across multiple facilities to provide grid services.

The Virtual Anchor Strategy: Using a central site to aggregate solar and battery resources to offset PLC costs across multiple satellite facilities under the Illinois CRGA Act

Technical Feasibility: How VPPs De-Risk the Balance Sheet

The traditional approach to energy management is reactive—buying power at market rates and hoping for minimal volatility. The Virtual Power Plant (VPP) framework introduces a proactive mechanism to manage Peak Load Contribution (PLC)—the metric that determines a facility's share of regional capacity costs.

The Mechanics of the Offset:

• Coincident Peak Shaving: Capacity costs are often set during the 5 highest-demand hours of the year. A VPP uses an automated "Scheduled Dispatch" of on-site battery storage to instantly drop a facility's grid demand during these critical windows.

• Aggregated Reliability Value: Under the CRGA Act, Illinois is moving toward a model where distributed resources (solar + storage) aren't just saving pennies on the kWh; they are being credited for the "Reliability Value" they provide to the grid.

• The "Virtual Anchor" Effect: By over-sizing storage at a primary "Anchor Site," a manufacturer can export excess capacity back to the grid. In the emerging VPP market, this "exported reliability" can be used to mathematically offset the PLC of satellite facilities within the same utility territory that lack the physical space for on-site generation.

The Strategic Shift: This transforms energy from a static utility expense into a dispatchable asset. The goal isn't just to "generate green power," but to strategically manipulate your facility's load profile to minimize exposure to the projected $3.9 billion capacity market expansion.

The Window for Strategy is Closing

Timing is now the most critical factor. The RA Study warns that developing new reliable resources typically takes five to seven years. With projected shortfalls starting as early as 2029, industrial leaders who wait to adjust their energy strategy may find themselves trapped by high market rates and limited supply.

Furthermore, the Federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for on-site solar is scheduled to drop off after July 4, 2026 (Non-source info). Proactive planning today isn't just about sustainability; it’s a vital financial hedge against the coming $3.9 billion capacity shift.

The Real Question for Illinois Manufacturers

If capacity costs double by 2030, do you already know which sites in your footprint will absorb that increase — and which could offset it?

Most energy strategies were built for a grid that no longer exists. By the time capacity risk shows up on your invoice, the opportunity to act has already passed.

Before CRGA mandates take effect in 2026 — and before federal solar incentives step down — it’s worth asking one simple question:

Could one site in your portfolio stabilize costs for all the others?

A brief discovery conversation with Envision Energy Solutions (EES) can clarify your PLC exposure, VPP eligibility, and whether a “Virtual Anchor” strategy makes sense for your Illinois footprint.

Set up a discovery call with EES today — and start with clarity before the grid makes the decision for you.

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